I have a collection of videos and watch times for users. I also have a bunch of attributes of the videos and users and watch histories that I will use as predictors/features.

I am interested in recommending personalized videos to a user with the goal of maximizing the watch time. How would I go about formulating the problem? I can think of two ways:

  1. I can formulate this as a linear regression problem where I am trying to predict the watch time (as measured in seconds say) for each video and then present the one with highest predicted watch time.
  2. I can convert the watch time from duration to ratio (E.g. 30 sec watched in a 60 sec long video becomes 0.5) and try to model it as a logistic regression problem where I am trying to predict the probability of completely watching the video.

Does my approach make sense? If not, please suggest any other methods.

PS: I am interested in specifically trying to maximize watch time and model this as a regression problem. I know there are other ways to recommend related items (association-rules, SVD, netflix algorithms etc.)

asked Feb 26 '13 at 18:08

Newbie's gravatar image

Newbie
1111


2 Answers:

There is no one true right answer to this question, as it really depends on your business needs. Do you want to maximize page views (because one page view is one ad impression)? Do you want to recommend shorter videos that people will watch almost all the way (option 2) or longer videos people might give up halfway through (option 1)?

answered Feb 27 '13 at 07:10

Alexandre%20Passos's gravatar image

Alexandre Passos ♦
2554154278421

I think you should look at poisson regression on the rate (rather than logistic regression) Wikipedia:Poisson

You are looking for something that takes into account that a rate must be between 0 and 1, ( but it doesn't have to be a probability)

Could you clarify what you are concerned about? I think what you are asking is watch time as Linear regression: Pros - directly modelling the quantity you want to maximise... Cons: not taking Film length into account ie Lin regression could predict watch more than film

answered Mar 01 '13 at 05:34

SeanV's gravatar image

SeanV
33629

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