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Yoshua Bengio wrote (p.c.):
What is an accurate technique for computing the moving variance? You can estimate a running average of the variance, using the running averages of the mean and of the square of the difference to the moving mean. However, I read a blog post (can't find the URL, unfortunately) that argues that this estimate has high error. Is there a better technique for computing the moving variance? |
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Use Welford's method as documented on wikipedia here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algorithms_for_calculating_variance#On-line_algorithm Stable. Accurate. On-line. Thanks Ted!
(Jul 03 '10 at 03:57)
Joseph Turian ♦♦
Has anyone ever seen a Welford-GARCH-type algorithm? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive_conditional_heteroskedasticity
(Jul 22 '10 at 13:48)
Russell Hanson
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I think you are dealing with an ARCH model here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive_conditional_heteroskedasticity |
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Actually, there is one important distinction which is that you recommend keeping all the samples around so that you can reset the estimate. One of the nice things about Welford's method is that it doesn't need resetting. You are absolutely correct, however, that the page you referenced does give Welford's method. |